How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Toronto FC to score 1 or fewer 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Nashville SC host Toronto FC at home on 27 September. Nashville sit top of the 15-team table with 60 points from 27 games and a +34 goal difference. Toronto are down in 12th place with 29 points and a –12 goal difference, just one spot above them and two below them. The gap between the two sides is 31 points, so the match will not change the title race but it could tighten the battle for the last European spots. Both clubs have played 27 games, so the standings are set and the result will mainly affect their final positions.
Nashville have been in decent form lately. In their last eight matches they have won three, drawn three and lost two. The most recent two games were 3-0 victories over Chicago Fire at home, giving them back-to-back wins. Before that they drew 2-2 away at Inter Miami twice, then lost 2-1 away to Toronto FC in two consecutive meetings. In those eight games they have scored 16 goals and let in eight, keeping four clean sheets and failing to find the net only once. Their last three home games have all been wins, showing they are strong when they play at home.
Toronto’s recent run has been much less encouraging. In their last eight fixtures they have won three, drawn two and lost three. The latest three results were heavy defeats: 3-1 away at St Louis City, then two 3-0 losses away at Orlando City. Prior to that they beat Nashville twice at home 2-1 and shared a 4-4 draw with Chicago Fire at home. In total they have scored 12 and conceded 17 in those eight games, and they have been shut out twice. Their last four road outings have produced only one win and three defeats, indicating they struggle away from home.
When the two clubs meet, the games tend to be open and produce several goals. In the last five meetings Nashville have won three times and Toronto twice, with an average of 2.6 goals per match. The most recent encounter, just a week ago, ended with Toronto beating Nashville 2-1 at home. Both sides have shown they can score, but Nashville have the edge in the head-to-head record and in overall form.
We pick Toronto to score one goal or fewer. Our expectation for the game is 2.1 goals for Nashville and 0.9 for Toronto, a total of three goals. Nashville have an 88 % chance to score at all and a 64 % chance to score twice or more, while Toronto only have a 56 % chance to find the net and a 20 % chance to score twice. The price of 1.33 matches our view of the odds. The pick looks good because Nashville’s attack is strong and Toronto have struggled to score on the road, failing to hit the net in two of their last eight games. It would go wrong only if Toronto manage to break through early and keep the pressure, or if Nashville’s defence slips and they concede more than one. In those cases the bet would fail, but we think the odds of Toronto staying under two goals are high enough to make the price attractive.
Recent results
Nashville SC have won three of the last five meetings.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
