How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 60%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Los Angeles Galaxy host Colorado Rapids at home on 27 September in an MLS clash that could move both clubs up the table. The Galaxy sit ninth out of fifteen with 33 points after 28 games and a -10 goal difference. Two places above them sit Seattle Sounders with a two-point cushion, while San Diego FC trail by one point. Colorado sit seventh with 39 points from 27 games and a +3 goal difference. They are two points behind Los Angeles FC and four points ahead of Seattle Sounders. Both sides are looking to improve their positions, and a win for either club will tighten the race for the top half of the table.
The Galaxy have been mixed in their last eight matches, winning three, drawing three and losing two. Their most recent results were a 3-2 away win over Minnesota United, a 1-1 home draw with Seattle Sounders, another 1-1 home draw with Seattle Sounders, a 3-0 away loss to Vancouver Whitecaps, a 2-1 home win over New England Revolution and a 3-1 away loss to San Diego FC. In those eight games they have scored 11 and let in 13. They have kept one clean sheet and have been shut out once. Five of the games featured three or more goals and both sides have scored in six of them. At home in their last four outings they have not lost, winning two and drawing two.
Colorado’s last eight fixtures also read three wins, three draws and two defeats. Their newest results are a 3-3 home draw with Seattle Sounders, another 3-3 home draw with Seattle Sounders, a 3-0 home loss to St Louis City, a 1-0 home win over CF Montréal, a second 1-0 home win over CF Montréal and a 1-1 away draw with Austin FC. They have scored 10 and conceded 13 in that span. The Rapids have kept three clean sheets but have also failed to find the net twice. Four of those games produced three or more goals and both teams scored in three of them. They come into this match on two straight draws.
When the two clubs meet, the games have been high-scoring affairs. In the last five meetings the Galaxy have won three and the Rapids two, with no draws. Those matches have averaged four goals each. The most recent encounter was a 4-1 victory for Colorado on 8 March, showing that both sides can find the net against each other. Given the recent goal-rich history, we expect another open contest with chances at both ends.
Our pick is both teams to score. The Galaxy have an 81 % chance of scoring at least once and a 49 % chance of scoring twice, while Colorado have a 69 % chance of scoring and a 32 % chance of scoring twice. The combined chance of both sides finding the net sits at about 60 %, and the price of 1.55 is shorter than our reading of the game. We think a goal from each team is the most likely outcome. It would only go wrong if one side shuts the other out completely, which would require a very tight defensive display that has not been common for either club in recent weeks.
Recent results
Los Angeles Galaxy have won three of the last five meetings.
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