New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. We made St. Louis City to score 2 or fewer 76%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.5 goals from New York Red Bulls and 1.5 from St. Louis City, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

New York Red Bulls come into this on four straight wins. St. Louis City come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: St. Louis City to score 2 or fewer. This is about St. Louis City's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.6 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 76%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.