Portland Timbers v Atlanta Utd: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Under 4.5 goals 73%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Portland Timbers host Atlanta United on September 20 in an MLS clash that could move both clubs a step up the table. Portland sit eighth out of fifteen with 32 points after twenty-five games and a goal difference of zero. They are three points behind Colorado Rapids in seventh place and level on points with Minnesota United in ninth. Atlanta sit second from the bottom in fourteenth, with 23 points and a –14 goal difference. They are three points behind Columbus Crew in thirteenth and two points ahead of CF Montréal in fifteenth. Both sides will be looking to improve their positions, but the stakes are higher for Atlanta, who are fighting to avoid the relegation-style drop zone.

Portland’s form over their last eight matches shows a mixed picture. They have won three, drawn two and lost three. The most recent result was a 2-1 loss away to FC Dallas. Before that they drew 2-2 with St. Louis City at home, then produced a dramatic 5-4 win over Minnesota United at home. A 2-1 home defeat to Austin FC followed, then a 1-1 draw away at Los Angeles FC and a 3-1 home victory over San Diego FC. In those eight games Portland have scored sixteen and let in fifteen. Seven of the games featured three or more goals and both sides have found the net in every match.

Atlanta’s last eight outings have been equally uneven. They have recorded two wins, three draws and three defeats. Their most recent two games were back-to-back goalless draws away at DC United. Prior to that they fell 3-2 at home to Orlando City twice, then drew 2-2 away at Inter Miami and lost 2-0 at home to Charlotte. On the road in their last four fixtures Atlanta have not been beaten, with one win and three draws. In total they have scored ten and conceded twelve in the eight-game stretch. They have kept two clean sheets but have also failed to score in three matches. Five of those games saw three or more goals and both teams scored in five of them.

When the two clubs meet, the games have usually been open and full of goals. In their last five meetings Portland have won once, Atlanta three times and there has been one draw, with an average of three goals per match. The most recent encounter was a 5-1 win for Atlanta on March 18, 2023. Given the recent scoring patterns of both sides – Portland scoring in most of their games and Atlanta’s recent high-scoring losses – we expect another match with chances at both ends. The numbers point to an open game with both teams likely to find the net.

We pick the under 4.5 goals. Our expectation is about 3.2 goals in total, roughly 2.0 for Portland and 1.2 for Atlanta. The price of 1.32 is shorter than our own reading, so it looks attractive. We think the game will stay below five goals about three-quarters of the time, which matches our 73 per cent chance of the pick hitting. For the under to fail, both sides would need to combine for five or more goals – a scenario that would require a very high-scoring affair, something that has not been common in their recent meetings.