What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from Portland Timbers and 1.2 from Atlanta Utd, so Portland Timbers come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.4 goals between the two (xG 2.2-1.2), landing about 63% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Portland Timbers have won one of their last five.
✓Atlanta Utd have not won any of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
18 Mar 2023Atlanta Utd 5 - 1 Portland Timbers
4 Sept 2022Portland Timbers 2 - 1 Atlanta Utd
19 Aug 2019Portland Timbers 0 - 2 Atlanta Utd
9 Dec 2018Atlanta Utd 2 - 0 Portland Timbers
24 Jun 2018Atlanta Utd 1 - 1 Portland Timbers
