How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Alverca and 1.1 from Santa Clara, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Santa Clara come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 1.0-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 61%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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