How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Arouca and 1.4 from Maritimo, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.0 goals between the two (xG 1.6-1.4), landing about 77% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
