What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Rio Ave and 2.5 from Sp Lisbon, so Sp Lisbon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sp Lisbon to win. Sp Lisbon shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-2.5), and we make them about 78% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Rio Ave only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 78% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
