How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 4. We made Sp Lisbon to win 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Rio Ave and 2.4 from Sp Lisbon, so Sp Lisbon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Sp Lisbon come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sp Lisbon to win. Sp Lisbon shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-2.5), and we make them about 78% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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