What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Arouca and 1.1 from Santa Clara, so Arouca come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.4-1.1), and we make both teams to score about 54%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
