How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Arouca to score 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Arouca and 1.1 from Santa Clara, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Arouca to score. This is about Arouca's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.4 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 72%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Arouca have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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