How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Sp Lisbon to score 2 or fewer 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Famalicao and 1.8 from Sp Lisbon, so Sp Lisbon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Famalicao come into this on two straight draws. Sp Lisbon come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sp Lisbon to score 2 or fewer. This is about Sp Lisbon's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.7 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 69%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Sp Lisbon have won five of the last five meetings.
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