How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Benfica to win 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Benfica and 0.7 from Gil Vicente, so Benfica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Benfica come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Benfica to win. Benfica are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.7), and we make them about 80% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.16, which works out at about 86 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Benfica have won five of the last five meetings.
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