How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Moreirense to score 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Moreirense and 1.3 from Maritimo, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Moreirense come into this on two straight defeats. Maritimo come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Moreirense to score. This is about Moreirense's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 71%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Maritimo have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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