What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Rio Ave and 1.3 from Estrela, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Rio Ave come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.3-1.3), and two is enough to land it, landing about 71% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Rio Ave have won one of their last five.
✓Estrela are unbeaten in their last five — one win and four draws.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
15 Mar 2026Rio Ave 2 - 1 Estrela
25 Oct 2025Estrela 1 - 2 Rio Ave
5 May 2025Rio Ave 2 - 0 Estrela
23 Dec 2024Estrela 1 - 0 Rio Ave
14 Apr 2024Estrela 2 - 2 Rio Ave
