How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Estrela to score 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Rio Ave and 1.4 from Estrela, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Rio Ave come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Estrela to score. This is about Estrela's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.5 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 73%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Rio Ave have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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