How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Sp Braga to win 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Sp Braga and 1.0 from Estoril, so Sp Braga come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sp Braga to win. Sp Braga are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.0), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Sp Braga have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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