How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Como to win 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Como host Parma at their home ground on September 14 in Serie A. Como sit sixth in the table with seven points from three games and a +4 goal difference. They are sitting in the European places, just one point behind Milan and level with Frosinone below them. Parma are down at 17th, also on three games but with only one point and a –3 goal difference. They sit just above Monza and level with Bologna above them. Both teams are fighting for very different goals – Como want to keep their push for Europe alive, while Parma are trying to climb out of the relegation zone.
Como have been in fine form. In their last eight matches they have won six and drawn two, never losing. The most recent results are a 4-1 win over RB Leipzig at home, a 4-1 victory away at Genoa, a 2-1 away win over Napoli, a 1-1 draw with Udinese away, a 4-1 away win over Cremonese and a 1-0 home win over Parma. Those eight games produced 17 goals for Como and only five against them. They kept three clean sheets and were held scoreless just once. At home in the last three outings they have won two and drawn one, showing they can finish games strongly even on a short four-day turnaround.
Parma have struggled to find any rhythm. In their last eight fixtures they have managed just one win, one draw and six defeats. Their recent results are a 1-1 draw with Monza at home, a 2-0 loss to Cremonese at home, a 2-0 defeat away to Juventus, a 1-0 loss at home to Cagliari, a 1-0 win over Sassuolo at home and a 1-0 loss away to Como. Over those eight games Parma have scored only four goals while conceding twelve. They have kept a single clean sheet and have failed to find the net in five matches. Their last three away games have all ended in defeat, and they have not played for eight days.
When the two clubs meet, the games have been tight. In the last five meetings Como have won twice, Parma have not won, and three matches ended in draws. The average scoreline in those meetings is just over one goal per game. The most recent encounter was a 1-0 win for Como on May 17. That pattern suggests a low-scoring affair, with both sides likely to be cautious but Como having the edge in recent form.
We back Como to win. The numbers show Como averaging about 1.9 goals per game while Parma are down around 0.6. Our chance of a Como victory sits at 73 out of 100 and the price of 1.24 is shorter than we think the game deserves. If Como keep scoring and Parma continue to struggle to find the net, the result should be a Como win. The pick would go wrong if Parma manage to break their scoring drought and keep a clean sheet, or if Como’s short turnaround leaves them vulnerable. All things considered, backing Como looks the cleaner play.
Recent results
Como have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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