Torino v Roma: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Roma to score 2 or fewer 68%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Torino host Roma at the Stadio Olimpico on 14 September 2026 in Serie A. Torino sit 14th in the table with three points from their last three matches and a goal difference of minus one. They are sandwiched between Udinese, one place above and a point ahead, and Fiorentina, one place below on equal points. Roma sit second, nine points from three games and a plus-nine goal difference, just a point behind Lazio and level on points with Inter. The clash is a test of whether the struggling home side can hold off a side that is clearly ahead in the standings.

Torino’s recent form has been poor. In their last eight games they have won two, drawn one and lost five. The most recent results are a 2-1 win at Fiorentina, a 1-0 loss to Monza at home, a 2-1 defeat away at Sassuolo, a 2-1 loss at home to Milan, a 2-2 draw with Juventus at home and a 2-1 loss away to Cagliari. Across those eight matches Torino have scored nine goals and let in thirteen. They failed to find the net in two of those games and six of the eight contests featured three or more goals, with both sides scoring in six of them.

Roma come into the game on a very different run. In their last eight fixtures they have won seven and drawn one, remaining unbeaten. Their latest results are a 1-1 draw away to Fenerbahçe, a 2-1 home win over Atalanta, a 4-0 away victory at Lecce, a 4-0 home thrashing of Fiorentina, a 2-0 win away at Verona and a 2-0 home success against Lazio. In those eight games Roma have scored 22 goals while conceding only four, keeping five clean sheets. Three of their last four road games have been wins and one a draw. They played just four days ago, so they will be on a short turnaround.

The two clubs have met five times before. Torino have managed one win while Roma have taken four, with no draws. Those meetings have produced an average of 2.2 goals per game. The most recent encounter was a 0-2 victory for Roma at Torino on 18 January 2026. Given the recent scores and the fact that both sides have been involved in games with three or more goals, we can expect another match with a few chances, but Roma’s defence has been tighter than Torino’s lately.

We pick Roma to score two or fewer goals. Our expectation is that Roma will finish the game with about 1.9 goals, and the chance of this happening is around 68 per cent. The price of 1.42 matches our view of the game. For the pick to go wrong, Roma would need to find a third goal, which is less likely given they have only scored twice or more in 57 per cent of their recent games and have kept several clean sheets. If Torino manage to score early and force a tighter contest, the bet becomes even more attractive.