What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Inter and 0.9 from Udinese, so Inter come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Inter to win. Inter are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.9), and we make them about 77% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Udinese a draw or better. We make it about 77% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
